Spurred by a discussion at a dinner last night, I would like to put out into the public two predictions.

First, at the end of 2026, the METR time horizon for 50% success will be at 48 hours. I believe the current superexponential trend will continue, and that swarms of agents will unhobble the abilities of AI models, though I’m less sure about the latter.

Second, at the end of 2031 there will not be 100 MW or more of AI compute deployed into Earth’s orbit.