I’ve been fascinated by prediction markets ever since I learned about them in 2021. Scott Alexander’s FAQ on the subject is a great resource, and my Metaculus question about Tether has garnered a lot of attention. Despite some ups and downs, I remain bullish on the potential of prediction markets and have been actively using platforms like Smarkets to place bets with real money.
As I continue to embrace my “very online” identity in 2023, I thought it would be fun to create prediction markets centered on my own life. You can win fake internet points by trying to guess if I’ll still be employed by Google:
If I move away from the wonderful Canary Wharf:
If I manage to bulk up:
If me and my friends get our shit together IRL:
Or if I go to Seattle:
I’ve created a group where I’ll add more questions if any ideas come up. There’s a separate London Rationalish group where we’ll try to add more relevant questions about the local rationalist meetup. I also plan on using the internal prediction market at Google for work-related items.